Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 271938
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CST WED FEB 27 2013
   
   VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   THUNDER ACROSS S FL HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AND THE SMALL THUNDER AREA
   ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN REMOVED. AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT BUT GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS...GRADUAL LOSS OF
   HEATING...AND PASSAGE OF THE SUBTLE IMPULSE...10 PERCENT COVERAGE IS
   NOT EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK
   DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID.
   
   ..MOSIER/KERR.. 02/27/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST WED FEB 27 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD
   AS SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURES SKIRT ITS SRN FLANK. THIS WILL
   MAINTAIN MODERATE W TO WSW FLOW ACROSS THE SRN STATES...AND KEEP W-E
   FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVER THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL
   STRAITS. 
   
   DRY AND/OR STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS OVER
   MOST OF THE U.S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE S FL...WHERE AN ELEVATED
   MOIST LAYER WILL PREVAIL ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE. SATELLITE DATA
   SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE IN SRN STREAM OF FLOW NOW CROSSING THE S CNTRL
   GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL ENHANCE ASCENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLD THUNDER...ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
   TNGT. OTHERWISE...A FEW DIURNAL STORMS ALSO MAY FORM FARTHER S OVER
   EXTREME S FL AND THE FL KEYS...WHERE SFC HEATING COULD BOOST SBCAPE
   TO AOA 1000 J/KG IN HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z