Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 030523
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CST SAT MAR 02 2013
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL COVER THE LOWER 48 STATES...AS
   A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND
   A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRACKS SEWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN CA...CNTRL NV...CNTRL UT...
   AS THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ACCOMPANYING THE SRN
   IMPULSE CROSSES CNTRL/NRN CA AND THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA NEVADA DURING
   PEAK HEATING...WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -22C...ISOLATED
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
   ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVERAGE/PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT THAT LEADS THE IMPULSE SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DIURNAL HEATING. WITHOUT EVEN COOLER MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WILL NOT EXTEND
   SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT TO PROMOTE ANY MORE THAN
   AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE
   LESS THAN 10 PERCENT IN THIS REGION. SIMILARLY...AN ISOLATED STRIKE
   OR TWO COULD IMPACT AREAS FROM CNTRL NV EWD TO CNTRL UT DURING PEAK
   HEATING AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY DCVA PRECEDING THE SRN
   IMPULSE AMIDST THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER...AS WITH LOCATIONS
   FARTHER W...THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OWING TO
   LACKING INSTABILITY.
   
   ...LOWER FL KEYS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CROSSING THE STRAITS OF FL MAY ALSO GLANCE THE
   LOWER FL KEYS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
   HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
   HOWEVER...SEASONALLY ANOMALOUSLY COOL CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL MITIGATE THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF BUOYANCY SUCH THAT
   THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   DRY AND/OR STABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS.
   
   ..COHEN/GRAMS.. 03/03/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z