Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 061934
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CST WED MAR 06 2013
   
   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO EXISTING THUNDER LINES AS
   CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/06/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST WED MAR 06 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS EWD. TO
   THE W...A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NWRN
   STATES...WITH AN INITIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NRN CA NEWD
   INTO ID RESULTING IN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT REGION.
   
   ...NRN CA...
   COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT WILL EXIST N OF THE MIDLEVEL SPEED
   MAX. POCKETS OF HEATING AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT
   IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TODAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
   STRONG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SMALL LOW-TOPPED CELLS CAPABLE OF
   MAINLY SMALL HAIL.
   
   ...ERN VA/DE...
   A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ACROSS ERN VA AND MOVING INTO SRN
   DE IN A ZONE OF VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE E OF THE SFC LOW. MODIFIED
   12Z RAOBS AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE AIR MAY BE
   TOO COOL TO GET SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MIXING FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS...DESPITE VERY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
   HOWEVER...GUSTS MAY STILL BE ENHANCED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z