SPC AC 141600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS
   THROUGH THE CREST OF AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
   U.S...MODELS INDICATE THAT FLOW WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC IN A BROAD
   ARC FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS/ MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...BEFORE IT TURNS CYCLONIC ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO
   THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  WITH SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF
   OF MEXICO REMAINING UNLIKELY BENEATH THIS REGIME...SEASONABLY HIGH
   MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A PLUME EXTENDING
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  
   
   A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COAST INTO THE
   PUGET SOUND AREA...COUPLED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING CONVECTION WITHIN A BROADER PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD ACROSS THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
   CASCADES BY 15/00-03Z.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EVIDENT IN
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IS LOW. 
   
   MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DID BRIEFLY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED WEAK
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA EARLIER THIS MORNING. 
   SIMILAR ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION AS FORCING
   DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/ LOWER OHIO AND
   TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS...BUT THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
   10 PERCENT.
   
   ..KERR/GARNER.. 03/14/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z