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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 200540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT WED MAR 20 2013 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE FL PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...A COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS N FL EARLY SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN OFFSHORE AFTER DARK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS S OF THE FRONT AS THE WARM SECTOR DIURNALLY DESTABILIZES. ...CENTRAL FL VICINITY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF FL THIS PERIOD -- DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WITH SOME STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH TIME ATOP A MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION -- AIDED BY PRESENCE OF MODEST SHEAR. THOUGH MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 03/20/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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