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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 201617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT WED MAR 20 2013 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF FL. ...FL... SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THIS ACTIVITY HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PENINSULA WHERE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING WILL LESSEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..HART/PETERS/MARSH.. 03/20/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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