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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 291551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS REX-TYPE BLOCK EVOLVES OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE DOWNSTREAM NRN BRANCH OF FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE NRN PLNS...THE MID MS VLY...AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA SHOW A SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN NM THAT SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO W TX THIS EVE AND TO THE ARKLATEX EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING AND MODEST BUT PERSISTENT LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. ...SRN PLNS TODAY INTO TNGT... WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP FAIRLY STOUT EML CAP LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED STORMS ABOVE THE CAP INTO TNGT...BOTH IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OVER OK AND NW TX...AND ATOP DEVELOPING SFC WARM/STNRY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL OZARKS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. BUT MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR...DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WEATHER. A SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK FOR SVR STORMS...MAINLY WITH HAIL BUT ALSO POSSIBLY WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX AND ADJACENT WRN/SRN OK. IN THIS REGION...FAVORABLY-TIMED APPROACH OF NM UPR IMPULSE WITH MAX SFC HEATING MAY YIELD A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN. WHILE WLY DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MODEST /30-35 KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF DEEP EML/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD NUMEROUS STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF UPR IMPULSE AND EXPECTED AMALGAMATION OF STORM-GENERATED COLD POOLS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO ESE-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS OVER NW TX AND OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO LATER TNGT...BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ...CNTRL HIGH PLNS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE... A MORE ISOLD SVR RISK MAY EXTEND NWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB AND NW KS LATER TODAY...WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG LEE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME DEGREE OF ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ESE ACROSS WY. ANY SVR THREAT /MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/ SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 03/29/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |