SPC AC 022000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
   
   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND
   SERN TX...
   
   ...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN TX...
   
   WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
   THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN TX SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX NEAR FORT STOCKTON
   WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SWD
   ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN TX AS WELL AS OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT CHARACTERIZES
   MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH ELY NEAR SFC WINDS VEERING TO WLY WITH
   HEIGHT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN UPPER IMPULSE
   MOVING INTO SWRN TX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND SOME INCREASE
   IN DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS THIS
   FEATURE CONTINUES EWD. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS AND LATER POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS AS STORMS CONGEAL WHILE
   DEVELOPING EWD. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL
   TX WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST. THOUGH
   HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT FROM SWRN TX INTO SCNTRL TX GIVEN SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS
   WITH HEIGHT.  
   
   OTHER ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WRN TX NORTH OF
   THE FRONT AND POSE SOME RISK FOR HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/02/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL CHANGE
   THIS PERIOD AS SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS OVER
   THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES...IN WAKE OF DEEP VORTEX OVER NEW
   ENGLAND/SRN QUE. LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE WILL
   CONTINUE OVER MUCH TX AND THE WRN GULF CST REGION...DOWNSTREAM FROM
   FOUR CORNERS UPR LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...DIVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL
   INCREASE OVER S TX LATER TODAY...AND OVER THE NWRN GULF THROUGH
   TNGT...AS SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER NW MEXICO/NRN SONORA TRACKS E
   TO THE BIG BEND REGION BY EVE...AND INTO LA EARLY WED.  
   
   AT THE SFC...SHALLOW POLAR FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING S
   ACROSS W TX TODAY. THE S TO SE ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
   MORE GRADUAL WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS THE LWR PLNS AND HILL COUNTRY.
   BY EVE THE FRONT SHOULD ARC NEWD FROM N OF THE BIG BEND REGION INTO
   A WEAK WAVE NEAR DFW. A SERIES OF WEAKER BOUNDARIES NOW EXTENDING
   ROUGHLY WNW/ESE ACROSS E TX INTO THE WRN GULF SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN
   AS LOW-LVL ESE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS REGION.  
   
   COMBINATION OF MOIST...LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SFC HEATING...
   APPROACHING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...AND UPLIFT ALONG POLAR FRONT
   TOGETHER SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN TX LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED. SOME OF
   THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SVR. 
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN TX LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE LOW-LVL CLOUD COVER
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL TX.
   NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR.
   COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS AND FAVORABLY-TIMED
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SONORAN UPR IMPULSE...EXPECT TSTMS TO FORM
   OVER S CNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTN...LIKELY PREFERENTIALLY ALONG
   WRN FRINGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK/NEAR LEE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NWD FROM
   THE BIG BEND. 
   
   WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /AROUND 35 KTS/...DEEP WLY SHEAR
   SHOULD BE AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN RICHLY-MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS ABOVE 12 C/ AND
   ELY COMPONENT TO NEAR-SFC FLOW. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG AND
   BEHIND SHALLOW POLAR FRONT OVER CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX. WHILE EXPECTED
   FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STORM COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN SOME DEGREE OF
   DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND BEFORE
   CONSOLIDATING INTO LARGER-SCALE CLUSTERS. THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD
   MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ESE TNGT THROUGH EARLY WED...THEREBY EXPOSING
   MUCH OF THE TX GULF CSTL PLN /ESPECIALLY MIDDLE PORTIONS/ TO A RISK
   FOR LOCALLY DMG WIND AND SVR HAIL. A RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A
   TORNADO OR TWO...CONDITIONAL ON FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.
   
   
   ...NW TX/OK THROUGH EARLY WED...
   FARTHER N...EPISODES OF ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE PERIOD N OF THE POLAR FRONT ACROSS NW TX AND MUCH OF OK.
   DEEPENING OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR MASS AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
   SFC-BASED STORMS FARTHER S SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN
   TOO LIMITED TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR HAIL.
   
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