| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 070540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN MO... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX ACROSS OK INTO SRN KS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS WCNTRL OK WITH NEAR 60 F POSSIBLE IN SRN KS. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNCAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KS WHERE SOME OF THE MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION AROUND 21Z. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NCNTRL KS AND SWD INTO NW OK BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON FROM WICHITA KS WWD TO DODGE CITY KS AND SWD TO GAGE OK GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS COINCIDES WITH 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL GENERATION...WITH GREATER THAN 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL OK EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN PERSIST AND MOVE EWD INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LACK OF A MID-LEVEL JET. ALSO...THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT WITH SWD EXTENT. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL SOUTH OF I-40. ...ERN KS/WRN-CNTRL MO... WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EXTENDING EWD INTO AR AND MO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS NE OK...ERN KS AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO ERN KS/WRN MO THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON AT KANSAS CITY KS AND SPRINGFIELD MO GENERALLY SHOW MUCAPE VALUES PEAKING AT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MODE COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH SOME OF THE WEAKER CELLS REMAINING MULTICELLULAR. CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WITH ACCESS TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS AND CONTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/07/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |