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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 120100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL WAVE ANALYZED OVER E-CNTRL AL DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY EARLY MORNING. CONCURRENTLY...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS IND/OH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THROUGH PARTS OF THE NERN GULF COAST STATES. ...PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS... EXTENSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD TO MOBILE BAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THIS EVENING. THE SRN HALF OF THE SQUALL LINE IS WHERE THE HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OWING TO GREATER REMAINING INSTABILITY. SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW A STEADY NWD MOVEMENT OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F NEAR THE GULF COAST. MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KT LLJ LIFTING NWD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE FROM TN SWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOR WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS OWING TO INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOWER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...WIND DMG POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE LINE...ESPECIALLY INVOF LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SMALLER-SCALE EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDE ISOLD LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY OVER NERN GA...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS SWD TO THE NERN GULF COAST. THE NRN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD STRONG GUST OCCURRING WITH PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ..SMITH.. 04/12/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |