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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 151207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OK...NORTHERN AR...AND SOUTHERN MO... ...OK/AR/MO... MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST TX NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO CENTRAL MO. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ILL-DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. NEVERTHELESS...A COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION BY 16/00Z. AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE RATHER LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND 3KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2/. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IL BY LATE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. A MORE FOCUSED SOURCE OF LIFT IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ...FL... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD FL THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THIS REGION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ..HART/GARNER.. 04/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |