May 3, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 3 19:51:34 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130503 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130503 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130503 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130503 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031947
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT FRI MAY 03 2013
   
   VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   NO CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK ARE MADE FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/03/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 03 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CNTRL STATES
   TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER NW AR AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
   LINGERS OVER ONT/QUE. IN THE BRANCH OF MODERATE FLOW UNDERCUTTING
   CNTRL U.S. SYSTEM...SATELLITE DATA SHOW SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
   EXTENDING FROM E TX/LA ESE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL
   PENINSULA/BAHAMAS.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...CONTINENTAL POLAR AND/OR MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL
   PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS E OF THE RCKYS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
   THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR /WITH
   PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES/ WILL PERSIST ALONG AND S OF WEAK W-E STNRY
   FRONT.
   
   ...LWR OH VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
   N-S COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
   ONLY SLOWLY E ACROSS THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TODAY. SFC HEATING
   LIKELY WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL LOW-LVL CLOUDS AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT OVER WRN TN...WRN KY...AND SRN IL. AT THE SAME
   TIME...CONFIGURATION OF UPR SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ASSOCIATED COLD
   POCKET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LAG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
   TAKEN TOGETHER...EXPECT THAT LOW TO MID-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL
   REMAIN WEAK TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
   
   NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND GRAZING
   INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A BROKEN BAND OF
   LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS LATE TODAY OVER PARTS OF IL/KY/TN/FAR
   SW IND. WITH THE LOW-LVL SSELY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS
   APPROACH OF UPR IMPULSE FOSTERS WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
   FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT OR TWO OF STRONG SFC WINDS AND/OR A
   BRIEF TORNADO WITH THE CONVECTION. OVERALL...HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SVR
   POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL THIS AFTN...
   DESPITE STRONG SFC HEATING AND PRESENCE OF MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIR...RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MODEST DEEP SHEAR...AND
   ABSENCE OF A FAVORABLY-TIMED UPR AIR IMPULSE TO ENHANCE UPR
   DIVERGENCE SHOULD MINIMIZE STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF SCTD DIURNAL TSTMS
   EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF WEAK FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE.
   THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG QSTNRY CONFLUENCE AXES
   EXTENDING W AND SW OVER S FL FROM WEAK LOW NOW E OF VERO BEACH.
   
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