May 3, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Fri May 3 19:51:34 UTC 2013 | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 031947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT FRI MAY 03 2013 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NO CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK ARE MADE FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ..BROYLES.. 05/03/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 03 2013/ ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CNTRL STATES TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER NW AR AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE LINGERS OVER ONT/QUE. IN THE BRANCH OF MODERATE FLOW UNDERCUTTING CNTRL U.S. SYSTEM...SATELLITE DATA SHOW SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EXTENDING FROM E TX/LA ESE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS. AT LWR LVLS...CONTINENTAL POLAR AND/OR MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS E OF THE RCKYS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR /WITH PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES/ WILL PERSIST ALONG AND S OF WEAK W-E STNRY FRONT. ...LWR OH VLY THIS AFTN/EVE... N-S COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ONLY SLOWLY E ACROSS THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TODAY. SFC HEATING LIKELY WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL LOW-LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN TN...WRN KY...AND SRN IL. AT THE SAME TIME...CONFIGURATION OF UPR SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LAG THE SFC BOUNDARY. TAKEN TOGETHER...EXPECT THAT LOW TO MID-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND GRAZING INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS LATE TODAY OVER PARTS OF IL/KY/TN/FAR SW IND. WITH THE LOW-LVL SSELY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS APPROACH OF UPR IMPULSE FOSTERS WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT OR TWO OF STRONG SFC WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WITH THE CONVECTION. OVERALL...HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW. ...CNTRL/SRN FL THIS AFTN... DESPITE STRONG SFC HEATING AND PRESENCE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR...RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MODEST DEEP SHEAR...AND ABSENCE OF A FAVORABLY-TIMED UPR AIR IMPULSE TO ENHANCE UPR DIVERGENCE SHOULD MINIMIZE STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF SCTD DIURNAL TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF WEAK FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG QSTNRY CONFLUENCE AXES EXTENDING W AND SW OVER S FL FROM WEAK LOW NOW E OF VERO BEACH. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |