May 5, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 5 19:58:35 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130505 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130505 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130505 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130505 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 051955
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2013
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/05/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 05 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH MON...WITH THE
   MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA AND DUAL BLOCKS
   OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...CSTL CA UPR LOW
   SHOULD SETTLE FARTHER SW INTO THE E PACIFIC...WHILE NRN MS LOW EDGES
   E TO NRN GA. COOL/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LWR LVLS...EXCEPT
   ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST...WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
   RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF NW-SE CONFLUENCE ZONE NOW OVER THE
   SAVANNAH RVR VLY SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
   
   ...SRN SC THIS AFTN/EVE...
   NW-SE CONFLUENCE ZONE NOW ENTERING FAR WRN SC SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY
   NE ACROSS SRN AND ERN SC LATER TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING UPR
   LOW. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST ALONG
   THE CONFLUENCE ZONE AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE TO ITS E. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE LOW-LVL VEERING TO
   SUPPORT LOW-LVL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTION
   INTERSECTS WSW-ENE WARM FRONT OVER THE SC CSTL PLN.
   
   THE WIND FIELD AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER SC LIKELY
   WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TODAY. BUT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL THETA-E DUE
   TO COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST SFC HEATING
   MAY SUFFICIENTLY BOOST LOW-LVL BUOYANCY TO YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
   TSTMS WITH LOW-LVL ROTATION AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. ANY SUCH
   THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THIS EVE AS NWD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT
   IS OUTPACED BY NE MOVEMENT OF CONFLUENCE ZONE.
   
   ...ERN AL/WRN GA/SE TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
   VORT LOBE PIVOTING AROUND SE QUADRANT OF MS UPR LOW PER SATELLITE
   AND VWP DATA WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF AL AND NW GA
   LATER TODAY/TNGT. AS ASSOCIATED MID-LVL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS BLO
   MINUS 20C/ AND ASCENT OVERSPREAD NARROW DRY SLOT OVER ERN AL/WRN
   GA...SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT NOW
   BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN CNTRL AL. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 40S F IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SFC HEATING OVER
   ERN AL/WRN GA...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL. LIMITED
   MOISTURE AND MULTICELL STORM MODE SHOULD...HOWEVER...MINIMIZE ANY
   RISK FOR SVR HAIL.
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z