May 19, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Sun May 19 06:04:35 UTC 2013 | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 190601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/MO AND SOUTHEAST NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER RELATIVELY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LEAD PORTION OF A PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS KS/NEB/SD DURING THE PERIOD....WITH HEAT-AIDED SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF A DRYLINE. ...PLAINS/OZARKS/MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY... A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE /AND-OR QUICKLY BE REESTABLISHED FROM SATURDAY PM CONVECTION/ ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST OF A NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE. AIDED BY A SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE A POTENTIAL FACTOR FOR REDEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY/ONGOING ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING/AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHERN IA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX. HERE...MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG. AIDED BY STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/...SURFACE BASED TSTM/DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHERN OK...PERHAPS BY EARLY OR MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INDUCED TRIPLE POINT...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED/HIGHER-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX. WITH AID OF A DIURNALLY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES /PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG/ ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...NEAR THE DRYLINE...A MORE DISCRETE MODE OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /AGAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER-BASED ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AND SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS WELL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL... A REMNANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..GUYER/MARSH.. 05/19/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |