May 19, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Sun May 19 16:19:37 UTC 2013 | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table | |||||||||||||
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |||||||||||||
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The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central united states later today and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event. View What is a Watch? clip. |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 191615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MID/UPPER FLOW HAS ALREADY STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A BELT CURVING CYCLONICALLY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP OVER A BROAD AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO GULF COASTAL AREAS. ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND SIZABLE CAPE ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI. ADDITIONALLY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK CYCLONIC BELT OF FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION...LIFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DO NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER NOW ADVANCING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF ATLANTA GA. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY... BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY AWAIT FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS IOWA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATER TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE...AS ANOTHER CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS IS STILL EXPECTED...AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH APPEARS REASONABLE SUGGESTING INITIATION OF STORMS ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY 19-20Z. AIDED BY FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...MAY BE SUPERCELLS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS WITH STORMS INITIATING AND ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE 850 MB JET ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAINTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ONE OR TWO LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. ..KERR/ROGERS.. 05/19/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |