May 26, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 05:50:35 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130526 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130526 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130526 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130526 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 311,276 4,355,144 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Billings, MT...
   SPC AC 260547

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
   SRN...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
   OMEGA BLOCKING REGIME FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
   VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN U.S. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
   AND INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC A LEE LOW WILL
   PERSIST OVER ERN CO WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
   AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. QUASI-STATIONARY WNW-ESE ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NWWD THROUGH NEB INTO WY. 

   ...NRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...

   PERSISTENT BROAD FETCH OF SLY-SSELY WINDS EAST OF LEE TROUGH WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID TO
   UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
   UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WSWLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF STEEP LAPSE RATE ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS.
   THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   WITH AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM ERN MT AND WRN SD SWD
   INTO WRN/CNTRL NEB. STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE
   ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL EXIST ON SERN
   PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WITH 25-35 KT 500 MB FLOW ABOVE
   SELY NEAR SFC WINDS SUPPORTING 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SUPERCELL
   MODES WILL BE LIKELY WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH PRIMARY
   THREAT BEING VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
   CLUSTERS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
   ACROSS NEB ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. 

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
   DEEPER MIXING ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL
   INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO MOIST AXIS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTH...BUT 25-35 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND ALSO SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS
   THROUGH MID EVENING.

   ..DIAL/DEAN.. 05/26/2013

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