Jun 1, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 1 05:59:36 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130601 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130601 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130601 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130601 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 355,453 45,396,404 Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Ft. Worth, TX...Detroit, MI...
   SPC AC 010556

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SW TX TO OH AND
   PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
   PERIOD...AS STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN PAC AMPLIFIES ACROSS
   BC/WA AND CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN MN DEVOLVES TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.  BY
   02/00Z...TROUGHING RELATED TO LATTER PERTURBATION WILL EXTEND FROM
   NWRN ONT SSWWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TO MO THEN SWWD ACROSS OK TO 
   TX PANHANDLE.  BASAL VORTICITY MAX OVER TX PANHANDLE AT THAT TIME
   SHOULD SHIFT SSEWD ACROSS OK TO AR BY 2/12Z.  ANOTHER EMBEDDED
   PERTURBATION NOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS MO/IA/SRN WI BY 2/00Z THEN ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS INDIANA/OH
   BY END OF PERIOD.

   MAIN SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EWD FROM MN ACROSS WI...LM AND
   NRN LOWER MI THROUGH PERIOD.  SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM
   UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS IA...CENTRAL KS...SWRN OK AND
   TX PANHANDLE -- IS FCST TO REACH WRN/CENTRAL IL...SRN MO....WRN AR
   AND N-CENTRAL/SWRN TX BY 2/00Z.  BY 2/12Z...FRONT SHOULD REACH
   PORTIONS LOWER MI...INDIANA...ERN AR...AND S-CENTRAL/SW TX.  FRONT
   WILL OVERTAKE DRYLINE FROM N-S AS IT SAGS SWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/SW TX
   DURING AFTN...BEFORE SFC MOISTURE ADVECTS WWD ACROSS SW TX BEHIND
   FRONT.

   ...MID-SOUTH TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ONE OR TWO PRIMARY
   BANDS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  RESULTING QLCS WITH BOW/LEWP
   FORMATIONS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL OFFER SVR GUSTS...OCNL
   LARGE HAIL AND RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL EXTEND FROM ERN AR NEWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS INDIANA/WRN OH...WHILE PREFERRED AREA FOR LARGEST
   LAPSE RATES AND GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE OVER MID-SOUTH.  MOST
   FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF PARAMETERS...AND THEREFORE UNCONDITIONAL SVR
   PROBABILITIES OF ALL MODES...APPEARS TO BE OVER AR/WRN TN/SERN
   MO/WRN KY AREA...WITH CONCERNS OVER CLOUD COVER/PRECIP PRECLUDING
   GREATER PROBABILITIES FARTHER N.  CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST INTO
   EVENING AS REGIME SHIFTS EWD OVER KY/TN AND SEWD INTO PORTIONS NRN
   MS/NWRN AL...THOUGH SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN
   TANDEM WITH LOSS OF OPTIMAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.

   ...ARKLATEX TO SW TX...
   AS FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGES UPON STRONGLY HEATED AND MOIST WARM-SECTOR
   AIR MASS THIS AFTN...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH
   DAMAGING HAIL AND SVR GUSTS AS PRIMARY THREATS.  RESULTING BAND OF
   CONVECTION THEN SHOULD SHIFT SEWD WHILE BACKBUILDING DOWN FRONT
   TOWARD SW TX...WHERE COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN.  TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...WHILE NON-ZERO...WILL BE TEMPERED BY WEAKNESS OF DEEP
   SHEAR...LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND RESULTING SMALL HODOGRAPHS. 
   MLCAPE 4000-5000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO 70S
   F SFC DEW POINTS IN INFLOW LAYER...VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND DEEP BUOYANT LAYER.

   ...PORTIONS MAINE...
   BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OF PREVIOUS DAY SHOULD RETREAT NWD OR
   NEWD...PERMITTING FAVORABLE WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS
   60S F TO BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF AREA PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION.  ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
   WEAK...DIURNAL/DIABATIC SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CINH
   AND MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG.  THIS AREA ALSO WILL RESIDE UNDER SRN
   RIM OF 500-300 MB JET...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
   AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES TO AID IN TSTM ORGANIZATION.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..EDWARDS/PETERS.. 06/01/2013

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