| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 030531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT MON JUN 03 2013 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH BELT OF FASTER WLYS CONFINED TO NRN TIER STATES. UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL ADVANCE INTO QUEBEC...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT THAT WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS AREAS... LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG SLY LLJ EAST OF LEE TROUGH. THIS PROCESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB...WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY LIKELY OVER WRN TX. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SELY WINDS VEERING TO WLY 30-35 KT AT 500 MB WILL RESULT IN 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM NRN PART OF WRN TX NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. HIGHER BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE INITIAL STORM MODE...BUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS AND PERSIST INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...SWRN TX... OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ..DIAL/BUNTING.. 06/03/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |