| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 031952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...
THE ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO INCREASE SEVERE WIND GUST
PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OVER SWRN KS...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
WRN OK.
...SWRN KS INTO ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK...
SEVERAL CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLES AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW
A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN KS/OK
PANHANDLE AND MOVING SEWD AS AN ORGANIZED MCS INTO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. EARLY
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS A RESERVOIR
OF 50S DEWPOINTS EXISTS ACROSS WRN OK-ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS
AHEAD AND TO THE E/SE OF A CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER SWRN KS. A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT --OWING IN PART TO
STRONG SURFACE HEATING-- COMBINED WITH A STRONGLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE...WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS MATURE AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO A MORE MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.25 INCH/.
SWATHS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL SEEMINGLY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE WEAKENING BY MID-LATE EVENING.
..SMITH.. 06/03/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 03 2013/
...GREAT PLAINS...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD
REACHING WRN ND BY 04/12Z. FARTHER SOUTH...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD OVER SWRN KS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD AND WEAKEN FURTHER WITH
TIME...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM LOW
OVER ERN MT SWD INTO SERN WY AND NWRN CO WILL MOVE EWD AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN CO. A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE CO LOW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS
STRONG HEATING/MIXING OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F RESTRICTED TO SRN TX. NWD SPREAD OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A BAND OF SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH AN AXIS OF DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
BECOMING ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE DRY LINE. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AND WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE /MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J PER KG/ WITH THE LARGEST CAPE FROM WRN KS SWD INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DYNAMIC FORCING WITH SWD EXTENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONTINUED HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED HIGHER-BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE NWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES WILL
EXHIBIT VEERING WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING OVER
WRN PARTS OF OK/KS...SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES STORMS MAY EXHIBIT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS MOVING
EWD/SEWD OVER SWRN KS/ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 06Z
BEFORE NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OCCURS.
...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER VORTICITY MAX ALONG A
MINOR INFLECTION POINT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY
LOCATED OVER FAR WRN NC. MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THIS FEATURE EWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SRN VA THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS SYSTEM...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER COASTAL
SC INTO ERN NC WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA. MORNING
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN CLOUDS THINNING OVER MUCH OF SC INTO THE
SRN PIEDMONT OF NC WHICH WILL PERMIT AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH MLCAPE REACHING NEAR 1500 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OF 25-30 KT WILL
SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS DEVELOPING. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS SUGGEST THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...HIGH
VALUES OF PW COUPLED WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST INDICATE A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
|