Jun 4, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 4 06:00:34 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130604 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130604 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130604 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130604 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 163,875 7,719,193 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...
   SPC AC 040556

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A  PORTION OF THE CNTRL
   AND SRN PLAINS INTO A SMALL PART OF THE MID MS VALLEY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH BELT
   OF STRONGER WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF COUNTRY. UPPER TROUGH OVER
   ERN MT SHOULD MOVE TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
   AN OCCLUDED FRONT ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE TO ERN DAKOTAS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH KS
   WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER SRN KS/NRN OK TUESDAY EVENING.
   DRYLINE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER EAST A
   STALLED FRONT WILL RESIDE OVER THE SERN SATES.

   ...SERN CO THROUGH NWRN TX...OK AND CNTRL/SRN KS...

   LEE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
   ELY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN GRADIENT ZONE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
   AS WELL AS IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE A
   MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM NERN NM INTO ECNTRL CO LATER IN THE
   DAY. MEANWHILE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME
   MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG THETA-E AXIS IN VICINITY OF AND
   SOUTH OF FRONT FROM SRN KS INTO OK AND NWRN TX WITH MLCAPE FROM
   2000-3000 J/KG SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING.
   TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON
   INCLUDING THE UPSLOPE REGIME OF SERN AND ECNTRL CO AS WELL AS NEAR
   TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. THESE AREAS WILL RESIDE SOUTH
   OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...BUT WLY 30-35 KT 500 MB WINDS ABOVE
   ELY-SELY NEAR SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SOME
   STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORMS
   BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND GROWING UPSCALE INTO MCS CLUSTERS
   SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ. ACTIVITY ORIGINATING IN UPSLOPE
   REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
   WITH A CONTINUE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS
   DEVELOPING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT MAY PERSIST INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 

   OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE THROUGH CNTRL NERN KS ALONG THE
   FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON OR LATER WHEN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   MCS TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION.

   ...ERN DAKOTAS...

   SIMILAR TO MONDAY...A CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX ALONG
   SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN
   FORM ALONG OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WHERE WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO SELY EAST
   OF WEAK SFC LOW. WHILE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
   AS MONDAY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO
   PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ..DIAL/BUNTING.. 06/04/2013

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