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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 040556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO A SMALL PART OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH BELT OF STRONGER WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF COUNTRY. UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN MT SHOULD MOVE TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE TO ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH KS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER SRN KS/NRN OK TUESDAY EVENING. DRYLINE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER EAST A STALLED FRONT WILL RESIDE OVER THE SERN SATES. ...SERN CO THROUGH NWRN TX...OK AND CNTRL/SRN KS... LEE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ELY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN GRADIENT ZONE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE A MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM NERN NM INTO ECNTRL CO LATER IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG THETA-E AXIS IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF FRONT FROM SRN KS INTO OK AND NWRN TX WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE UPSLOPE REGIME OF SERN AND ECNTRL CO AS WELL AS NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. THESE AREAS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...BUT WLY 30-35 KT 500 MB WINDS ABOVE ELY-SELY NEAR SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND GROWING UPSCALE INTO MCS CLUSTERS SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ. ACTIVITY ORIGINATING IN UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT MAY PERSIST INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE THROUGH CNTRL NERN KS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON OR LATER WHEN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MCS TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION. ...ERN DAKOTAS... SIMILAR TO MONDAY...A CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN FORM ALONG OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WHERE WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO SELY EAST OF WEAK SFC LOW. WHILE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS MONDAY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL/BUNTING.. 06/04/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |