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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 061220 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SE TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR FAR SW TX AND SE NM... ...FL TODAY... THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING /REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. TO THE RIGHT OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AS WELL AS A FEW CLOUD BREAKS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDS...ONE OFF THE W COAST OF FL CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE CORE...AND ANOTHER BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT IS SPREADING EWD NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN BAND APPROACHING THE E CENTRAL FL COAST TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE ERN GULF BAND MOVES INLAND...PRIMARILY WHERE THE STORMS INTERSECT A SUBTLE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL. ...E/SE TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS TODAY... A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL/NE TX TODAY. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE SE FLANK OF THE MCV WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING...ACROSS E TX. SOME FLOW ENHANCEMENT ALOFT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV COULD PROMOTE MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS E/SE TX. MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT COULD SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IN LA ALONG I-20 COULD ALSO PERSIST WHILE DEVELOPING SWWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. A FEW STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLUSTER TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR AND W OF THE SABINE RIVER AS OUTFLOW WITH THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE NE TX CONVECTION AND MCV. FARTHER E INTO MS...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR E-SE OF THE ONGOING LA STORMS...WHILE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER E/NE IN MS...JUST TO THE NW OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUOYANCY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ...SW TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR SW TX AND SE NM...AND THIS ENELY FLOW REGIME WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SAG SWD TODAY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STORM COVERAGE SINCE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS AT BEST...THUS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKE THE DAVIS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 06/06/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |