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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 100558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS INTO VA...MD...FAR SRN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KY INTO TN... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...WITH UPPER FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS SRN PA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM KY INTO TN. TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN ID INTO SRN MT AND NWRN WY. ...CAROLINAS INTO VA...MD...PA...DE... SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...A GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS AND POCKETS OF HEATING AND SWLY FLOW HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING...THUS SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS SUCH AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE WITHIN THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE STORMS. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME LONGER DURING THE DAY...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. LOW LEVEL VEERING WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE FROM CNTRL/ERN VA INTO MD AND SRN PA. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS LESS FARTHER N INTO PA...THIS AREA MAY RETAIN THE LARGEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DUE TO PASSAGE OF EARLY PRECIPITATION AND WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY FORM EITHER ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...MODERATE DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS WILL FAVOR A FEW BOWS OR LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ...TN INTO KY... UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH...COLD TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RH LEVELS WILL EXIST N OF THE DRY SLOT. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST...IN MAINLY A DIURNAL FASHION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EVOLUTION AS STORMS MERGE AND COLD POOLS ARE PRODUCED. ...ERN CO/WRN KS... VERY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR BUT COOL PROFILES ALOFT WILL YIELD MARGINAL CAPE DESPITE LITTLE MOISTURE. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN A LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY PROPAGATE EWD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ...ERN ID...NWRN WY...SWRN MT... DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. ..JEWELL/COHEN.. 06/10/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |