Jun 14, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 14 05:45:37 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130614 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130614 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130614 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130614 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 141,406 4,475,012 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
   SPC AC 140542

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   AND MID MO VALLEY...

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MID MO VALLEY...

   STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ZONE OF CONCENTRATED HEIGHT FALLS
   FORECAST TO FOCUS OVER SK/AB...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL FALLS WILL EXTEND
   INTO ND.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO
   A POSITION EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW ALONG THE SK/AB BORDER...SWD
   ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY 15/00Z.  WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
   AFFECT THE NRN PLAINS IT APPEARS WARM SECTOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL STRUGGLE TO STEEPEN AS SFC HEATING MAY BE MINIMIZED BY
   CLOUDINESS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES THERE IS
   CONCERN THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS ND.  FOR THIS
   REASON THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS OTHERWISE COULD BE
   EXPECTED AND LOW SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND SHOULD SUFFICE.

   FARTHER SOUTH...INTENSE HEATING WILL BE NOTED FROM SERN CO ACROSS
   WRN KS INTO SERN NEB.  LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
   WILL APPROACH DRY ADIABATIC AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT.  AS TEMPERATURES
   SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INHIBITION WILL
   WEAKEN SUCH THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 21Z.  ALONG
   THE NERN EXTENT OF THIS HIGHER BASED CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN KS INTO ERN NEB WHERE SFC
   DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 70F.  ANY TSTMS THAT ROOT INTO
   THIS AIRMASS WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A MODEST
   VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES OVER THE MID MO
   VALLEY WILL BE AIDED IN PART BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER WARM
   ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET AS LLJ INCREASES
   ACROSS KS INTO WRN IA.  ISOLATED WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER
   BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT A FEW SLOW MOVING
   SUPERCELLS COULD EMERGE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY DUE TO THE ENHANCED
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

   ...NRN FL...

   NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE SERN U.S. IN
   THE WAKE OF EJECTING EAST COAST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  RISING SFC
   PRESSURES OVER THE OH VALLEY SHOULD FORCE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS
   SRN GA INTO NRN FL THAT COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ROBUST TSTMS.  HEATING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
   SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON AND SFC-6KM SHEAR ON
   THE ORDER OF 25KT COULD SUPPORT SLOW MOVING MULTI-CELL STRUCTURES. 
   HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.  AT THIS TIME
   COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBS.

   ..DARROW/ROGERS.. 06/14/2013

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