Jun 14, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 14 16:10:38 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130614 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130614 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130614 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130614 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 133,130 6,157,855 Jacksonville, FL...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...
   SPC AC 141607

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
   TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS N FL...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD OFF THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SWD INTO N FL AND
   THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST.  THE WRN PORTION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
   WILL DRIFT SWWD INTO EXTREME E TX AND ERN OK...AND THEN TRANSITION
   INTO A WARM FRONT ALIGNED PRIMARILY NW-SE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   FROM ERN NEB TO NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER.  FARTHER N...A COLD/OCCLUDED
   FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO WRN MN BY TONIGHT...IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING FROM WY/MT.  THE SURFACE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 

   ...MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   AN MCV PERSISTS THIS MORNING OVER ERN NEB...WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV...A NEW CLUSTER OF
   ELEVATED STORMS HAS FORMED IN SW IA/NRN MO.  THESE STORMS WILL POSE
   A MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW IA/NW MO.  FARTHER
   W/NW...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NW KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB...WHERE STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING S OF THE FRONT ERODES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  THE
   INITIAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW
   GUSTS AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO NEB.  FARTHER E INTO ERN NEB...RICHER
   MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F/ WILL SUPPORT LARGER
   CAPE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
   SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT.  STORMS THAT SPREAD INTO OR DEVELOP WITHIN THE
   ERN NEB ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WITH
   THE MORE DISCRETE/PERSISTENT STORMS.

   ...ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS ERN ND...AND CLOUDS
   WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S IN SD/NEB. 
   STILL...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH/SPEED MAX.  GIVEN QUESTIONS ABOUT
   THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE. 

   ...N FL TODAY...
   DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR CTY AS OF 15Z...AND
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS N FL ALONG A
   DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND PERHAPS FARTHER N ALONG THE
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  THE COMBINATION OF MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WITH THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE MID ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 300O J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ...SRN LA/EXTREME SE TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S/ AND RICH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED SYNOPTIC
   FRONT.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH STRONG
   UPDRAFTS/PRECIPITATION LOADING...WHILE DCAPE OF 1250-1500 J/KG WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.  THE INITIAL STORMS
   SHOULD FORM BY 21-22Z IN SRN LA...AND THEN SPREAD WWD-WSWWD TOWARD
   THE SABINE RIVER THIS EVENING.

   ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX TODAY...
   A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE /PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES/ HAS
   SPREAD NWD OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TO THE E OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL
   LOW OVER THE BIG BEND.  THOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE
   HEATING...THE DRT VWP SHOWS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR WEAKLY
   ROTATING STORMS.  THUS...WILL ADD LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO TODAY /SEE MD 1078 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/.

   ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/14/2013

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