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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 241229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES AND MIDWEST REGION... ...EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN IL... MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST STATES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND SOME SEVERE RISK. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...CNTRL AND WRN KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN NM. GIVEN ITS CURRENT MOTION...THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AROUND 21Z...PROMOTING RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOW VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA. ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION AND LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WY/WESTERN SD. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..HART/ROGERS.. 06/24/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |