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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 260529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFIES. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CREATING A COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR LATER SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. A REMNANT MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIOR CONVECTION MAY INTERACT WITH THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND AN UPTICK IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF SRN IL/SW IND/WRN KY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR INITIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WHERE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED /LOWER OH VALLEY/...BEFORE QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE RESULT OF BUILDING WRN RIDGE/NW FLOW REGIME...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HINDER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS TRANSITION TO AN MCS OCCURS. THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY REGION AND LIKELY PERSIST TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. ...NORTHEAST STATES... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NY/PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ENHANCED W/SWLY FLOW OVER A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN BROKEN CLOUDS. POOR LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/...BUT FASTER STORM MOTION AND SOME DRY MIDLEVEL AIR WILL PROMOTE SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. ..LEITMAN/BROYLES.. 06/26/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |