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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 060059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE STG ANTICYCLONES OVER WRN N ATLC AND AZ/NM. PERSISTENT/QUASISTATIONARY TROUGHING ALOFT EXTENDS FROM MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SSWWD ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIFTING EWD ACROSS MO ATTM. PRIMARY BELT OF FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO EITHER SIDE OF CANADIAN BORDER FROM NRN PLAINS TO PAC COAST...THEN EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS ERN CANADA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NWRN MT SWWD ACROSS ERN WA AND CENTRAL/SWRN ORE -- IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. STRONGER NRN PORTION OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT THEN ENEWD TO N-CENTRAL/NERN MT BY 12Z. WEAKER PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS SERN MT...WRN SD...ERN WY AND NWRN CO...CONTRIBUTING TO GEN TSTM OCCURRENCE IN THAT CORRIDOR. AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING E OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES INCLUDES ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LEE CYCLONE NEAR NWRN KS/ERN CO BORDER. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW OVER SERN MT...ACROSS WRN SD. FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER E AND NE OVER SD HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED AMIDST INFLUENCES OF EARLIER PRECIP/CONVECTION. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN MIXED MODES OF CLUSTERS...SMALL BANDS AND DISCRETE CELLS ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NV...SRN ID...NRN UT..AND WRN WY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. RIW/SLC RAOBS SHOWED DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS IN SUPPORT OF WIND POTENTIAL...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. REF WW 392 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE. SVR THREAT BECOMES MORE MRGL DUE TO LOWER TSTM COVERAGE AND AREAS OF LOWER CAPE/STRONGER CINH NWD ACROSS MT...THOUGH ISOLATED SVR GUSTS/HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. INITIALLY SEPARATE BAND OF TSTMS FROM SERN MT NEWD ACROSS WRN SD ALSO POSES RISK OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER ITS ENVIRONMENT ALSO IS CHARACTERIZED BY MRGL BUOYANCY AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR COMPARED TO FARTHER W. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER ABOUT 04Z...AMIDST COMBINED STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND SFC DIABATIC COOLING. ...NERN CONUS... NARROW CORRIDOR OF MRGL SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN VT WWD ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL NY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW SVR LIMITS...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURAL CLADDING. 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTMS WITH SPORADIC/TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL ROTATION POSSIBLE. TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH UNFAVORABLE DEGREES OF STABILIZATION OF AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |