Jul 10, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 10 00:39:42 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130710 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130710 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130710 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130710 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 316,264 43,643,456 Chicago, IL...Phoenix, AZ...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Tucson, AZ...
   SPC AC 100036

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 PM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013

   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR S-CNTRL/SERN AZ...

   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
   CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING WITHIN A HOT
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER WRN KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. AS
   STORM MERGERS CONTINUE...STRENGTHENING COLD POOL WILL LIKELY EXPAND
   DOWNSHEAR /AIDED BY 20-30 KT LOW-LEVEL WSWLY JET/ INTO A VERY
   MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AFTER DARK.

   ...OH VALLEY AND MIDWESTERN STATES...
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY WARM AND
   MOIST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 70S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE AREA RESIDES
   IN THE WAKE OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FOCUSED FROM MO INTO IND
   MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORM CLUSTERS THIS EVENING.
   OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW COULD SERVE AS AN
   ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH
   STORM INITIATION IS IN QUESTION...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE
   CONTINUES DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

   ...S-CNTRL/SERN AZ...
   LOW-LEVEL WLYS SURMOUNTED BY MIDLEVEL ELYS WILL AID IN WWD
   PROPAGATION OF STORMS OVER SERN AZ INTO S-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
   STATE THIS EVENING. AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING
   1.5 INCHES...AND HOT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 90-105F. AS
   A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AND WILL PROMOTE A RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

   ...ERN DAKOTAS...UPPER MIDWEST/MS VALLEY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
   AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG MIDLEVEL WNWLY WINDS ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO SUPERCELL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES /REF 00Z ABR
   RAOB/...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...WILL AID IN A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A
   LOW-END TORNADO THREAT ALSO DEVELOPED EARLY TODAY OVER NERN
   WI...WHERE SURFACE WINDS S OF A SURFACE LOW WERE BACKED TO
   SSWLY...AND VEERED TO WLY AT 1 KM AGL. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE MOVING
   OFFSHORE OVER LK MI...THUS NO TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
   ASSIGNED TO THE AREA.

   ..GARNER.. 07/10/2013

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