Jul 10, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Wed Jul 10 00:39:42 UTC 2013 | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 100036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR S-CNTRL/SERN AZ... ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING WITHIN A HOT WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER WRN KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. AS STORM MERGERS CONTINUE...STRENGTHENING COLD POOL WILL LIKELY EXPAND DOWNSHEAR /AIDED BY 20-30 KT LOW-LEVEL WSWLY JET/ INTO A VERY MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AFTER DARK. ...OH VALLEY AND MIDWESTERN STATES... BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY WARM AND MOIST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE AREA RESIDES IN THE WAKE OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FOCUSED FROM MO INTO IND MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORM CLUSTERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH STORM INITIATION IS IN QUESTION...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ...S-CNTRL/SERN AZ... LOW-LEVEL WLYS SURMOUNTED BY MIDLEVEL ELYS WILL AID IN WWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS OVER SERN AZ INTO S-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES...AND HOT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 90-105F. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AND WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...ERN DAKOTAS...UPPER MIDWEST/MS VALLEY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG MIDLEVEL WNWLY WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUPERCELL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES /REF 00Z ABR RAOB/...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WILL AID IN A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT ALSO DEVELOPED EARLY TODAY OVER NERN WI...WHERE SURFACE WINDS S OF A SURFACE LOW WERE BACKED TO SSWLY...AND VEERED TO WLY AT 1 KM AGL. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE MOVING OFFSHORE OVER LK MI...THUS NO TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE AREA. ..GARNER.. 07/10/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |