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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 250031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NERN CO THROUGH SRN NEB... ...NRN MT AREA THROUGH WRN ND... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NRN MT TO THE NORTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST AND MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CUT-BANK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX MOVING ESEWD THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS ARE HIGH BASED WITH LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. INSTABILITY IS MODEST WITH MLCAPE /AOB 1000 J/KG/ AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT RESULTING FROM THE SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN STORMS INTO AT LEAST LATE EVENING WHEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED. ...CNTRL PLAINS AREA... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FARTHER EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS INDICATED. OTHER MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER ERN NEB WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ...CAROLINAS... NUMEROUS STORMS PERSIST FROM SERN GA THROUGH CNTRL/ERN NC WITHIN A MULTICELL VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME. GENERAL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY STILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |