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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 280535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NY/ERN PA/NJ/MD/DE... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE SERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM MD NNEWD INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM WASHINGTON D.C. NNEWD TO NEAR ALBANY NY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ....NRN HIGH PLAINS... A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY AS WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN WY INTO NERN MT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S F. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL MT AND NEAR THE SFC LOW IN ERN MT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON FOR BILLINGS AND MILES CITY MT SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND AND HAIL. A SOMEWHAT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MT AND NE WY WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES/COHEN.. 07/28/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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