SPC AC 101626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/SRN VA INTO NRN
   NC...

   ...CENTRAL/SRN VA INTO NRN NC...
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VA WWD INTO KY IS EXPECTED TO SAG
   SWD TODAY.  THE REGION IS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WLY FLOW
   ALOFT AND WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
   JET LOCATED ACROSS THE NERN STATES.  THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
   PW VALUES AOA 2.0 IN AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST /NEAR 6C PER KM/...HOWEVER HIGH
   MOISTURE CONTENT OF LIFTED PARCELS AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SOUTH
   OF THE FRONT /SURFACE TEMPERATURES MID 80S TO NEAR 90/ ARE RESULTING
   IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION WITH CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. AREA VAD
   WINDS FROM FCX/AKQ AND LWX INDICATE A BAND OF 30-40 KT WESTERLY
   WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2-4 KM AGL WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION
   AND EWD MOTION.  CURRENT STORMS OVER CENTRAL VA HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
   SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED
   ENVIRONMENT....WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
   STRONGER CELLS.  SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685 FOR ADDITIONAL
   DETAILS.

   ...ARKLATEX ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONGER HEATING
   AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE COMPOSITE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE AS THE EFFECTIVE FOCUS FOR NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT
   SUGGESTING THAT WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND SOME PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE TYPES WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS.

   ...ERN MT INTO SD/NRN NEB...  
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD/ESEWD OVER SD TODAY. 
   ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SLOWLY
   WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN SD.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORMS DURING THE DAY IN
   RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL 60+ F DEWPOINTS ON THE SRN
   FRINGE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS. 

   OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS ERN MT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN.  THE COMBINATION OF
   MARGINAL-MODERATE BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERAL SUPERCELLS/ WITH A RISK OF
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STORM
   COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE AN INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

   ...PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NWD ALONG THE OREGON
   COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT TO THE N/NE OF
   THE LOW FROM EXTREME NRN CA ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON TO WA. 
   WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP IN THIS CORRIDOR THIS
   AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SLY/SELY VERTICAL
   SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

   ..WEISS/JIRAK.. 08/10/2013

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