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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 150530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX OVER SERN MT/NERN WY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SSEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO A POSITION OVER SWRN NEB/NERN CO BY 18Z. THIS FEATURE IS SEASONALLY STRONG AND IS QUITE COOL AT MID LEVELS...MINUS 12C AT 500MB. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS FOR MID AUGUST WITH 40KT EXPECTED ACROSS KS AT PEAK HEATING. THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE A WEAK SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NERN CO BY MID DAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NEB/NRN KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BREACHED BY 18Z ACROSS THIS REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 00Z NAM ALLOWS 4000 J/KG SBCAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS WITHIN INFLOW REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE DUE SOUTH AT ROUGHLY 20KT BUT IF STORM MERGERS OR BOWING STRUCTURES EVOLVE THEN FORWARD SPEEDS MAY INCREASE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERS EVOLVE. IF AN MCS EVOLVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX AFTER DARK. ...SERN U.S... AN AXIS OF VERY HIGH PW CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WHERE VALUES REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS AL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENCOURAGE SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS GA/NRN FL WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BENEATH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION. ..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 08/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |