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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 151230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/WRN KS TO NW TX... ...CENTRAL/WRN KS TO NW TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SSEWD FROM THE WY/NEB/SD BORDER TO KS/OK OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONSIST OF A WEAK LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP SSEWD FROM THE NE CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON TO NW TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON THE MESOSCALE...A WEAKENING MCV WILL PROGRESS SEWD FROM SW KS TO WRN OK...AS ANOTHER MCV /WITH AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/ MOVES SEWD FROM SW/S CENTRAL NEB TO N CENTRAL/NE KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WITH THE NEB MCV SHOULD WEAKEN SOME THIS MORNING...BUT THE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION INTO NRN KS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. LIKEWISE...THE WRN EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEAK LEE CYCLONE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HAVE LARGELY REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WITH STORMS SPREADING SWD/SSEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...REACHING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK TONIGHT. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY... DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN 30-50 KY NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SWD-MOVING MCS. ...NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE ACROSS SRN GA. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MIDLEVEL WLYS. A FEW MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS FARTHER S INTO FL WITH COLLIDING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF PRECIPITATION LOADING. ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 08/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |