| 
)| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 210523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2013 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN U.S.... VERY MOIST AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE GULF STATES SATURDAY AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WHILE THIS PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL EXTEND NWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION OF UPPER TROUGH...VERY POOR LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY NOT ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE. EVEN SO THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AND SEVERE PROBS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT THIS PERIOD. ...WRN U.S... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WRN WA/ORE AND NRN CA BY 22/00Z AS 60KT+ MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. NORTH OF THIS JET AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR BASIN SUCH THAT DEEP THERMALS WILL INDUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. RELATIVELY POOR MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS THESE STORMS SHOULD POSE LITTLE RISK OF MEANINGFUL SEVERE. ..DARROW/MOSIER.. 09/21/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
|||||||||