Sep 24, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 24 16:15:36 UTC 2013 (20130924 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20130924 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130924 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130924 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130924 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130924 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241611

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WRN IA-MO UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHEARING ESE THIS PERIOD
   AS EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ON ITS SRN SIDE CONTINUE ESE INTO THE
   LWR OH AND TN VLYS. OTHERWISE...A BROADER...LARGER-SCALE TROUGH NOW
   OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL AMPLIFY SE INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WITH A
   LARGE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE ORE-WA BORDER BY
   12Z WED.  

   AT THE SFC...SHALLOW...RESIDUAL LAYER OF POLAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
   CANADIAN MARITIMES UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MODIFYING OVER THE
   LWR MS VLY/GULF CST STATES. THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS
   MARKED BY WEAK WARM FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM SW MS ESE INTO THE
   NERN GULF/N FL. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EDGE SLIGHTLY NWD TODAY IN
   RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF ERN U.S. SFC
   RIDGE.  

   UPLIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   DISTURBANCES ON SRN FRINGE OF IA-MO LOW...WILL SUPPORT EPISODES OF
   STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL
   GULF CST STATES...AND PERHAPS FL...LATER TODAY.

   ...LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN/EVE...
   SW-NE BAND OF TSTMS NOW OVER LA-MS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
   BAND OF DEEP CONFLUENCE ARCING S/SW FROM IA-MO UPR LOW. UPLIFT ALONG
   THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT
   ADVANCES GENERALLY E/SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND WLY
   DEEP SHEAR FAIRLY MODEST /25-30 KTS/. BUT WIND PROFILES WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   SUSTENANCE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LINEAR LOW-LVL FORCING. COUPLED WITH
   FILTERED SFC HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW AOA 2
   INCHES/...SETUP COULD YIELD EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS
   CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND /REF MCD 1909/. A LIMITED THREAT ALSO
   WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN WEAK BUT BACKED LOW-LVL
   FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE BAND. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO COULD OCCUR WITH
   ANY STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS FORMING INVOF DIFFUSE WARM
   FRONT OVER SRN MS AND WRN AL LATER TODAY.

   ...FL THIS AFTN...
   ERN EXTENT OF LWR MS VLY/NERN GULF WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SERVE AS A
   FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
   CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL...HOWEVER...ALSO BE MODULATED BY
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBED
   CONVECTIVE AREA NOW CENTERED SW OF TAMPA. 

   GIVEN HIGH PW OVER CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA /UP TO 2.50
   INCHES/ AND 20-25 KT MEAN LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WSW FLOW...SETUP
   COULD YIELD A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG SFC WIND THROUGH
   LATE IN THE DAY.

   ..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 09/24/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z