Sep 24, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Tue Sep 24 16:15:36 UTC 2013 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 241611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN IA-MO UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHEARING ESE THIS PERIOD AS EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ON ITS SRN SIDE CONTINUE ESE INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS. OTHERWISE...A BROADER...LARGER-SCALE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL AMPLIFY SE INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE ORE-WA BORDER BY 12Z WED. AT THE SFC...SHALLOW...RESIDUAL LAYER OF POLAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN MARITIMES UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MODIFYING OVER THE LWR MS VLY/GULF CST STATES. THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS MARKED BY WEAK WARM FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM SW MS ESE INTO THE NERN GULF/N FL. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EDGE SLIGHTLY NWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF ERN U.S. SFC RIDGE. UPLIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES ON SRN FRINGE OF IA-MO LOW...WILL SUPPORT EPISODES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST STATES...AND PERHAPS FL...LATER TODAY. ...LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN/EVE... SW-NE BAND OF TSTMS NOW OVER LA-MS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF DEEP CONFLUENCE ARCING S/SW FROM IA-MO UPR LOW. UPLIFT ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT ADVANCES GENERALLY E/SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND WLY DEEP SHEAR FAIRLY MODEST /25-30 KTS/. BUT WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUSTENANCE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LINEAR LOW-LVL FORCING. COUPLED WITH FILTERED SFC HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW AOA 2 INCHES/...SETUP COULD YIELD EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND /REF MCD 1909/. A LIMITED THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN WEAK BUT BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE BAND. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS FORMING INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER SRN MS AND WRN AL LATER TODAY. ...FL THIS AFTN... ERN EXTENT OF LWR MS VLY/NERN GULF WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL...HOWEVER...ALSO BE MODULATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBED CONVECTIVE AREA NOW CENTERED SW OF TAMPA. GIVEN HIGH PW OVER CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA /UP TO 2.50 INCHES/ AND 20-25 KT MEAN LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WSW FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG SFC WIND THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. ..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 09/24/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |