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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 291228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SITUATED ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NERN PACIFIC TO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMBEDDED IN THIS REGIME NOW OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW AND SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES IN ADVANCE OF AN INTENSE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION WHICH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL DECELERATE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT. ...PACIFIC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /SEE THE 12Z UIL SOUNDING/ FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS TODAY. AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE --AND PERHAPS INTENSITY-- IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE NEXT STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE COAST. GIVEN THE STRONG...AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ...LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS TO SOUTH TX THIS AFTERNOON... LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS WILL YIELD AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE TODAY WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED...BUT VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/29/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
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