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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 110052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT PRECEDING A VIGOROUS SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. BOTH SFC OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z DDC/LBF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE DEGREE OF FORCED ASCENT AND STRONG AMBIENT WINDS...DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS WRN KS AND SWRN NEB THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEAR SFC-BASED PARCELS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE 06-08Z TIME PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL KS/NEB. ..ROGERS.. 10/11/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |