Oct 12, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Sat Oct 12 00:58:43 UTC 2013 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 120054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MN... A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN MN...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASINGLY MEAGER INSTABILITY. A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUST AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO GIVEN OBSERVED 0-1 KM LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS /PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/ AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING. ...MID-MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE ARKLATEX... A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SAT MORNING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA...COMBINED WITH DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS. WHILE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF TSTM INITIATION...MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. ..ROGERS.. 10/12/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |