Oct 12, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 12 00:58:43 UTC 2013 (20131012 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20131012 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131012 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20131012 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20131012 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20131012 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120054

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

   VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...MN...
   A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD ALONG A
   PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN MN...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASINGLY MEAGER INSTABILITY. A NARROW WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUST AND
   PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO GIVEN OBSERVED 0-1 KM LAYER SHEAR OF
   30-40 KTS /PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/ AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH...BUT
   WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END
   BY LATE EVENING. 

   ...MID-MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE ARKLATEX...
   A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
   APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA...COMBINED WITH DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER IMPULSE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS. WHILE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
   SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF TSTM
   INITIATION...MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR
   WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
   HAIL AND STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS.

   ..ROGERS.. 10/12/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z