Oct 21, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 21 16:15:40 UTC 2013 (20131021 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20131021 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131021 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20131021 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20131021 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20131021 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 211612

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

   VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.  ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER
   PARTS OF OK/TX/AR/LA...FL...AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   WEAK CAPE IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AND WEAK SHEAR IN FL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SHOULD
   PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

   ..HART.. 10/21/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z