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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 220448 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERLIE MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD FROM ERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TRACK FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY ANOTHER IMPULSE ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS FROM THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N/NW OF A REMNANT FRONT ORIENTED NE/SW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES. S OF THIS FRONT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AROUND PEAK HEATING...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY COULD ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF POOR-QUALITY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SERN-CONUS FRONTAL ZONE INTO PARTS OF ERN MO AND CNTRL/WRN IL. IN THESE AREAS...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR INVOF A FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING...AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...SINCE CAPE MAY NOT EXTEND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT TO SUPPORT GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION IS NOT BEING MADE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ALSO...COLD MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY H5 TEMPERATURES LOCALLY COLDER THAN -30C WILL OVERLIE THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO. ..COHEN/GUYER.. 10/22/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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