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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 040519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST SUN NOV 03 2013 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ...NM DURING THE DAY...THEN WRN KS INTO SRN NEB OVERNIGHT... STRONG HEATING...COOLING ALOFT AND AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WEAK DAYTIME STORMS OVER NM...WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS GRAUPEL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NRN NM INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SCATTERED STORMS. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. ..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 11/04/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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