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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 101616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL 1016 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 10%. ..15_OWS.. 11/10/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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