SPC AC 121229

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
   WHILE DEEPENING SLIGHTLY. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG OR
   JUST EAST OF THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. RECENT SURFACE
   ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FROM FAR
   SW TX EWD ACROSS W-CNTRL TX THEN NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX TO JUST
   OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. CONTINUED SWD/SEWD PROGRESSION IS
   EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING OFF
   THE GULF AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BY 00Z. FARTHER W...A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS WRN BC/PACIFIC
   NW...BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST/WRN CANADA. 

   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   MOIST AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE FRONTAL
   PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODEST HEATING IS EXPECTED
   WITHIN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WARM ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL KEEP
   BUOYANCY MINIMAL AND ONLY A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EL TEMPS
   BELOW -20 DEG C. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO
   EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WEAK NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY
   WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
   PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW FOR A GEN THUNDER AREA.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 11/12/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z