Nov 24, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 24 19:52:38 UTC 2013 (20131124 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20131124 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131124 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20131124 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20131124 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20131124 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241949

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS
   PREVAILING OVER THE U.S. LARGELY MITIGATING APPRECIABLE THUNDER RISK
   IN MOST AREAS.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL AND S TX AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW...BUT
   COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 11/24/2013

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013/

   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH
   A CUTOFF LOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION
   AND MARGINAL CAPE VALUES WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.  ALSO...AN
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MIGHT AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTH FL
   THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT OTHERWISE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   IS EXPECTED TODAY.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z