SPC AC 261249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ALONG THE NE GULF COAST
   AND INTO TONIGHT FROM THE FL PENINSULA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER WILL MOVE INLAND TO
   SW GA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID
   ATLANTIC.  THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/S TX EJECTS ENEWD TO GA...WHILE PHASING WITH A
   NRN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SEWD TO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
   BY 27/12Z.  A NWD/NEWD SURGE OF A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS FROM THE
   GULF OF MEXICO AND SW ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING
   CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF CONVECTIVE
   PRECIPITATION...FROM THE NE GULF COAST AND FL TO THE CAROLINAS
   THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

   ...NE GULF COAST TODAY...
   THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF 68-72
   F...HAS BEEN SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST THIS
   MORNING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS NOTED OFFSHORE IN RADAR IMAGERY.  AS
   THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD SW GA THIS EVENING...THE WARM
   SECTOR WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD INLAND...MOST PROMINENTLY ACROSS THE FL
   PANHANDLE IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN QUITE STRONG ON THE ADVANCING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR...SUCH
   THAT SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS COULD SPREAD INLAND BY MID-LATE
   MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW
   DAMAGING GUSTS.

   ...S GA AND THE CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA
   WILL BE SLOWED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHILE THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FL PANHANDLE FROM THE LOOP CURRENT
   TODAY...AND DEVELOP E OF FL OVER THE GULF STREAM BY TONIGHT. 
   THUS...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN BUOYANCY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE
   CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA INTO S GA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. 
   STILL..BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 500 J PER KG/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED
   OVER N FL AND S GA BY THIS EVENING...WHERE A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

   LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF
   STORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL W
   COAST.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CENTRAL TO S
   FL...AND BUOYANCY WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE WEAKER INLAND AND OVERNIGHT.
    HOWEVER...THE INLAND WEAKENING OF BUOYANCY SHOULD NOT BE SO
   PRONOUNCED AS TO INHIBIT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL.

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
   A RAPIDLY MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
   LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL FRONT RETREATS INLAND IN
   RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS.  ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   APPROACH THE 66-68 F RANGE...WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BECOME ROOTED AT THE
   SURFACE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  A 50-70 KT SSWLY LLJ WILL CONCURRENTLY
   OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR
   THE COAST...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A RISK FOR
   SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IMPACTING THE ERN
   CAROLINAS WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL WITH EMBEDDED CELLS...EMANATING OFF
   THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM WATERS.  THUS...A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREATS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
   MORNING.

   ..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 11/26/2013

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