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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 030543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST MON DEC 02 2013 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH WILL OCCUR AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGS SWD AND SEWD FROM THE CA COAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY...WHILE A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTS ENEWD AWAY FROM THE WRN IMPULSE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTION OF THE VORT MAX...A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE WILL TAKE A CYCLONICALLY CURVED TRAJECTORY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AID IN THE EWD/SEWD ACCELERATION OF AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER A BROAD EXPANSE OF THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT ADVANCES SWD ALONG AND W OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING WRN-CONUS TROUGH AND ON THE HEELS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING THE E COAST. MULTIPLE FOCI FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND SWRN STATES NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...POOR PHASING BETWEEN THESE ASCENT FOCI AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING PRECLUDE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY STREAM POLEWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES NWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTIVE GROWTH OWING TO LIMITED ASCENT. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AL/GA AND VICINITY...WHERE BROAD LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE MODESTLY AUGMENTED WITHIN THE TERMINI OF DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...AND VERY SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY /1/ POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND /2/ MEAGER SFC CONVERGENCE AMIDST CAPE ONLY EXTENDING MARGINALLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT. THUS...GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN/GOSS.. 12/03/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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