Dec 13, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Fri Dec 13 16:30:38 UTC 2013 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 131626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT MEAGER MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE AREA FROM TX INTO THE TN VALLEY. VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER JET MAINLY OVER THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. ..HART/KERR.. 12/13/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |