Dec 13, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 13 16:30:38 UTC 2013 (20131213 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20131213 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131213 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20131213 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20131213 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20131213 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

   VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRACK QUICKLY
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM
   SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT MEAGER MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND
   YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE AREA FROM TX INTO THE TN
   VALLEY.  VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
   THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE ORGANIZED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
   UPPER JET MAINLY OVER THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS.

   ..HART/KERR.. 12/13/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z