Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 221645
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2013
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THRU THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
   THE MAIN PORTION OF A BROAD POLAR VORTEX IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF
   SHIFTING ACROSS QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  BUT ANOTHER
   SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY IS FORECAST TO DIG
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COAST STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS APPEARS
   LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CONFLUENT/CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES...WITH A SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING SURFACE COLD INTRUSION
   NOSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THE UPPER
   HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AND
   OHIO VALLEY.
   
   ...PACIFIC COAST THRU ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS AND WRN GULF COAST...
   AT THE SAME TIME...AS THE CENTER OF A WEAKENING PRECEDING SURFACE
   RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOME
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
   OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND THE
   ARKLATEX.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY BENEATH A WARMING
   ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGING...
   DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW CENTER... WITHIN
   THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW.
   
   WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THIS LATTER REGIME...A VIGOROUS SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGING WHILE
   BEING FORCED INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG MID
   TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT
   COINCIDENT WITH ONLY A WEAK TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW...AND MOSTLY IN
   THE WAKE OF EXTENSIVE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  WHILE WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR IMMEDIATE
   WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LIGHTNING...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR BELOW 10
   PERCENT AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/22/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z