Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 270700
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   CORRECTED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY BY LATE
   MONDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM
   BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND NRN
   MEXICO. LATEST NAM AND SREF MEAN APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING A QUASI
   SPLIT-STREAM CONFIGURATION AND POSITIVE TILT TO THE LARGE SCALE
   TROUGH...AT LEAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
   EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF WITH THE END RESULT BEING A SLIGHTLY
   SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH COMPARED TO SOME EARLIER
   FORECASTS. A LEADING LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE...THE WEAKENING REMNANTS
   OF THE IMPULSE NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...WILL TRANSLATE
   QUICKLY EAST WITHIN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
   NRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEADING IMPULSE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
   LAKES...AND AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER LARGE SCALE TROUGH...A ZONE
   OF STRENGTHENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL S-SWLY WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE EMANATING FROM
   THE NWRN GULF AND EAST TX WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH/NEWD ACROSS
   THESE AREAS AND CONTRIBUTE TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT MODESTLY
   UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM TX TO MO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
   
   ...NERN OK TO MIDWEST...
   WITH STRONGEST DYNAMIC ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EVOLVING LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE MORE UNSTABLE 
   WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
   PROBABLY BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION/MASS TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF
   THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NRN
   PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAY INDUCE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE THEN RIPPLES
   ENEWD ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
   THE STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT...FROM OK NEWD TO NRN IL. ANY
   SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD
   BE INHIBITED BY MARGINAL/WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF A MORE DEFINED
   FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY BEGIN TO
   INCREASE NOT LONG AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
   MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE UPCOMING DAY 3 OTLK FOR
   ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z