Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 170550
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
   THIS IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PHASING OF A COUPLE OF
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN A SPLIT BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING
   FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN A
   BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. 
   THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
   LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   CONTRIBUTES TO THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE
   PACIFIC COAST.
   
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD WAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
   TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE LATTER
   HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING
   SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER HALF OF
   THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT...OF PACIFIC
   ORIGINS...IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS OVERTAKING A DEVELOPING/SHARPENING DRY
   LINE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /50-70+ KT/ APPEARS LIKELY TO
   FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY WELL INLAND OF WESTERN AND
   CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
   FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST.  GIVEN THIS...AND A WESTERN GULF
   OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF RECOVERY FROM
   RECENT COOLING/DRYING...IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT INLAND
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN WEAK IN MAGNITUDE.  SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL OCCUR
   MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
   PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  MOST OF
   THIS...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF VERY WEAK CAPE...ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL
   AND STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER.  AS A RESULT SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE FOR MOST AREAS.
   
   ...PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN AR...
   MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD
   DEVELOP IN A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR...ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY
   LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY RETURN
   AS FAR NORTH AS THE ARKLATEX...CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE GENERALLY ON THE
   ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE
   FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.  VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
   CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
   ...AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO
   EXIST FOR LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE.  AND...IF
   THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
   TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/17/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z